Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia Using Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods

Non-oil and gas exports could be forecasted using exponential smoothing for future periods. This study examines non-oil export data in Indonesia from January 2015 to May 2021, indicating trends seasonality. Based on the characteristics, obtained were analyzed Holt's double method triple with multiplicative additives Holt-Winters. The MAPE all three models is less than 10%, that very good used forecast next period. Using as a comparison, best model additive Holt-Winters smoothing, which has lowest of any model. was employed data, making it possible us anticipate pattern exports. basis policymakers' decision-making. results this indicate value will increase